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While the European Meat and Poultry Market is Hampered by Avian Influenza, British Producers Struggle with Brexit Shocks

IndexBox has just published a new report: ‘EU – Meat And Poultry – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights.’ Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

The European meat and poultry market remains relatively resilient against the pandemic but suffers from a pathogenic avian influenza outbreak. Brexit hampers severely British meat exports to the EU. The new green agenda forces livestock breeders and meat producers to reduce emissions. Should this trend strengthen, the alternative protein market may emerge against the slower growth of the meat industry.

Key Trends and Insights

The European market was not damaged dramatically by the pandemic. After lockdowns in April 2020, it recovered rapidly and returned to its seasonal trend.

According to the latest USDA report, the EU meat production in 2020 reduced slightly due to the outbreak of Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

The EU is considering the possibility of providing subsidies to farms in 2021-2027 for implementing measures to reduce greenhouse emissions from livestock, such as the use of feed additives to reduce the amount of methane emitted by animals.

After Brexit, the UK meat exporters face supply delays. They suffer losses as they cannot export chilled minced red meat, chilled meat preparations, such as raw sausages, minced meat, poultry mechanically-separated meat. The British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) continues negotiations with the European Union to create an export health safety certificate for these products so they could be imported into the EU.

The alternative protein production is steadily increasing. According to the latest data by Good Food Institute, in 2020, venture capital funds invested $1.5B in the global alternative protein industry. Since meat production is carbon-intensive, its long-term growth may be hampered by the new green agenda while the market for alternative proteins emerges.

Consumption by Country

The countries with the highest volumes of meat and poultry consumption in 2019 were Germany (7.8M tonnes), France (5.6M tonnes), and Spain (5.4M tonnes), with a combined 41% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Italy, the UK, Poland, the Netherlands, Romania, Portugal, Denmark, Belgium, Hungary, and Austria, which together accounted for a further 47% (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Romania, while meat and poultry consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest meat and poultry markets in the European Union were Germany ($24.4B), France ($19.2B), and Italy ($15.3B), together comprising 44% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of meat and poultry per capita consumption in 2019 were Denmark (174 kg per person), Spain (114 kg per person), and Portugal (103 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable growth rate in terms of meat and poultry per capita consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Romania, while meat and poultry per capita consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

EU Meat and Poultry Exports

In 2019, exports of meat and poultry in the European Union expanded to 16M tonnes, growing by 1.9% against 2018 figures. In value terms, meat and poultry exports rose to $47.7B (IndexBox estimates).

The Netherlands (2.6M tonnes), Germany (2.5M tonnes), Spain (2.2M tonnes), and Poland (2M tonnes) represented roughly 58% of total exports of meat and poultry in 2019.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($8.1B), Germany ($7.5B), and Spain ($6.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 46% share of total exports.

In 2019, the meat and poultry export price in the European Union amounted to $2,948 per tonne, remaining stable against the previous year.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($3,098 per tonne) and Spain ($3,033 per tonne), while Belgium ($2,421 per tonne) and the UK ($2,510 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Production in the EU

In 2019, the amount of meat and poultry produced in the European Union stood at 49M tonnes, remaining stable against 2018. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years.

The countries with the highest volumes of meat and poultry production in 2019 were Germany (8.2M tonnes), Spain (7.2M tonnes), and France (5.6M tonnes), with a combined 43% share of total production. These countries were followed by Poland, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Ireland, Romania, Hungary, and Austria, which accounted for a further 49%.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable growth rate in terms of meat and poultry production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Poland, while meat and poultry production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Producing Animals and Yield in the EU

In 2019, the number of animals slaughtered for meat and poultry production in the European Union amounted to 8.3B heads, approximately mirroring 2018 figures. This number increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period.

The average meat and poultry yield totaled 5,902 kg per 1000 heads in 2019, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year’s figure. In general, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern.

Exports in the EU

In 2019, exports of meat and poultry in the European Union expanded to 16M tonnes, growing by 1.9% against 2018 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2019; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when exports increased by 5.2% y-o-y. The volume of export peaked in 2019 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, meat and poultry exports rose to $47.7B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, exports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017, with an increase of 7.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, exports attained the maximum at $48.4B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports by Country

The Netherlands (2.6M tonnes), Germany (2.5M tonnes), Spain (2.2M tonnes), and Poland (2M tonnes) represented roughly 58% of total exports of meat and poultry in 2019. Belgium (1.3M tonnes) occupied the next position in the ranking, followed by Denmark (1,136K tonnes), France (1,067K tonnes), and the UK (767K tonnes). All these countries together took near 27% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in Poland, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($8.1B), Germany ($7.5B), and Spain ($6.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2019, with a combined 46% share of total exports.

Among the main exporting countries, Spain recorded the highest growth rate of the export value over the period under review. Meanwhile, shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices by Country

In 2019, the meat and poultry export price in the European Union amounted to $2,948 per tonne, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a mild shrinkage. The growth pace was the most pronounced in 2017 when the export price increased by 6.1% year-to-year. The export level peaked at $3,364 per tonne in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, export prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2019, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the Netherlands ($3,098 per tonne) and Spain ($3,033 per tonne), while Belgium ($2,421 per tonne) and the UK ($2,510 per tonne) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain, while the other leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform

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