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The Economic Perspective: “Odds of a Recession Next Year”

I’m Mary Walden, with economist MW, welcoming you to the economic perspective. Today’s program looks at the odds of a recession next year. Mike, a recent survey of economists indicated half of them predicted a recession in 2020. My first question is, do you agree? But maybe my more important question is, what things should we watch to help us decide if a recession is looming?

a. Answer to first question – no, I don’t think there’s any necessary reason why a recession in 2020
should occur
b. No glaring excesses in the economy
c. Private sector debt is still reasonable – in terms of ability to pay
d. Even public debt is the same
e. Inflation is not showing signs of accelerating
f. Fed is backing off of raising interest rates more
g. And, especially, if trade deals are completed with the new NAFTA (legislative approval), Japan, EU
and – of course – China – they will boost the economy
h. But there’s always the unknown we don’t see coming
i. I’m MW

And I’m Mary Walden for the Economic Perspective, an NC State Extension program from the
Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.