Rabobank: Fertilizer Prices Lower in 2023

A new Rabobank report says a recovery in consumption is possible in some regions next year, with fertilizer prices lowering and commodity prices at historically high levels.

“The affordability index’s moving average is trending lower as fertilizer prices are returning to pre-Ukraine War levels,” according to the report. “For the next three months, the index will continue to trend downward but remain above normal.”

The key point to watch for is nitrogen products, as the natural gas crisis in Europe has the potential to make urea and ammonia more expensive and could keep the index at a high level. Rabobank says the nitrogen-based fertilizer market is the most volatile among all fertilizers due to its connection with oil and natural gas markets. As those commodities get more volatile, urea and ammonia prices are expected to go along with the tide.