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Meyer Concerned on Fourth Quarter Hogs

The outlook for the hog market in 2023 will come with hurdles in production, input costs and export opportunities. Dr. Steve Meyer, an economist with Partners for Production Agriculture and Ever.Ag, said costs for the producer are high.

“We’re not going to get away from these corn and soybean meal prices in the in the near future. Help is on the way, we’re going to increase our soybean crushing capacity about 20 percent over the next three years. And when we do that, it’s going to they’re going to crush the beans for the oil and there’s going to be a lot of meal available. So that’s going to help.” 

The industry has seen robust consumer demand in the states. Dr. Meyer said we should be about the same as we were a year ago in December.

“it’s important that that hang in there. So, if that can hang in there, then you have room to improve the Bugaboo that we’ve run into over the last two months and that is softening wholesale demand and softening hog demand. Those two move together pretty well.” 

The concern he has is into the fourth quarter. Though Meyer said hog supplies won’t be burdensome at all, it’s the loss of a packing plant.

“We lose a packing plant here in the next three, four or five weeks in Los Angeles, California. And that won’t be a consequential thing until the fourth quarter, and it might be then. There’s a chance we’ll get some double shifts started at a couple of plants, there have been talking about it There’s nothing concrete we could really use them.” 

The fourth quarter could bring with it an increase in sow retention, but he stressed there’s plenty of time between now and the fourth quarter. Visit Porkcheckoff.org for Checkoff-funded market information.