Farmer sentiment dropped during March as concerns over agricultural trade and farm policy weighed on producers’ outlook for the future. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer fell 12 points to 140, down from 152 in February.

The Index saw a 15-point drop in the Index of Future Expectations to 144, and the Current Conditions Index fell five points to 132. The drop was influenced by falling crop prices since mid-February, along with the increasing uncertainty surrounding agricultural trade and farm policy. 

Purdue ag economist James Mintert says export expectations for the next five years hit an all-time barometer low.

“Thirty percent of producers expect to see exports fall, nearly matching the percentage of producers who expect to see exports rise, suggesting producers’ outlook for Ag exports, which predominantly have been a real source of growth in the U.S. Ag sector for decades, really shifted.”

Keeping on with the trade theme, Mintert says they asked producers which of the following policies or programs, between trade policy and interest rate policy, will be most important over the next five years, and he noted there’s been a shift since the election.

“Back in August, before the election, 22 percent of the respondents in the survey chose interest rate policy as one of their top concerns versus 20 percent choosing trade policy.  Since the election, over 40 percent, an average of 43 percent, of the respondents to the survey have chosen trade policy as their top concern. While the percentage choosing interest rate policy as a top concern has been falling, and this month was just ten percent.”

The index indicates that producers still anticipate better financial performance this year than in 2024.