A couple of weather events to talk about as we look back over the past seven days or so. And to do that, I’m talking with Corey Davis from the state climate office of North Carolina. First thing that I think was welcome in a number of ways, was the rain we saw earlier this week, Corey.
“Mike, that was a solid, good soaking rain event that moved in last Sunday night and especially during the day. On Monday, this was a cold front that moved across the state. We talked about it last week, how we were expecting around an inch of rain in most areas, and that’s exactly what we got. Some of the wetter places in the far western part of the state, and then up in northeastern North Carolina, I actually saw a little over two inches, but again, a good, pretty widespread rain that did make a difference on the drought map. This week, we’ve been able to peel back some of that moderate drought in western and central North Carolina. The totals were not quite as heavy along the coast and especially down into South Carolina, those areas were generally between half an inch to an inch, but even those spots, it was a good welcome rain. And I think one of the most welcome reasons we can think of is that it washed a lot of that pollen out of the air. That meant some yellow puddles on the ground, but better off in the puddles than in the air and in our noses.”
Absolutely right. And now, speaking of an inch of rain, isn’t that about the average that we look for on a weekly basis. So I mean, this was very welcome. I mean, we hadn’t had that in a while.
“That’s right, you look back at the month of March, very few rain events that even totaled a quarter inch, let it alone, an inch. So again, to get that much in a week, it’s what we look for this time of the year. But we haven’t always gotten it, especially knowing how dry we’ve been over the past few months. One other thing this provided some relief for was those wildfires that have still been burning, especially up in the northwestern South Carolina, that Table Rock fire that’s slowly coming into full containment and again, seeing a couple inches of rain out in that part of the state, that goes a long way at getting that fire under control behind the rain.
We had a cold snap that put a scare in farmers.
“That cold front was not just a cold front in name only. There was some legitimate cold air in place behind that system. We saw low temperatures getting down into the 30s on Wednesday morning this week, with some of the forecasts showing widespread temperatures at or below freezing that definitely would scare the farmers, especially that have already gotten some of their crops into the ground. Luckily, this was not a widespread freezing event. We mainly saw those temperatures in the low 30s and upper 20s, right along the Virginia border and then getting into parts of the mountains in far western North Carolina. But for instance, across the coastal plain, some of the coldest readings we saw were down around 35, 36 degrees. That can be enough to cause a little bit of frost, but not a hard freeze. So again, we were lucky that it was not a widespread freeze event, especially given that the type of cold air that we had during this event.”
Especially for the strawberry farmers, peach farmers, those spring crops that are coming in, right have really done some damage. Speaking of crops, we’re starting to see some crop reports come in. What are you seeing?
“One thing we’ve talked about all winter long is how some of those small grains in the winter wheat have just been lagging behind where they usually are at this time of the year. Some of that actually goes back to last fall. It was so dry back in October and November that a lot of the farmers could not get those grains planted when they usually would, because the soil moisture levels were so low. So with that dry weather continuing over the winter and into March, they just couldn’t quite catch up with where we expected them to be. But finally, with the rain event that we’ve had earlier this week, we’re starting to see some improvements. One area where we’re seeing those improvements is in the crop conditions. In the latest report from Monday from USDA, we’re now seeing 86% of winter wheat in good to excellent shape across both North and South Carolina. That is finally a step up from where it seems like they’ve been all winter long. So with a couple months left before those grains are finally harvested, I’d say we’re catching up and staying a pretty good shot of getting where we would expect to be by the time those come out of the ground.”
What about the drought monitor right now? I guess that that rain that we saw earlier this week is really not going to show up next week, right?
“We did see some improvements, especially in western North Carolina, and these were areas where that rain had moved in a little bit earlier on into first thing Monday morning, for instance. Out across the southern mountains, we’ve gone from moderate drought back to just abnormally dry, but honestly, some of the wetter areas in that part of the state have pretty much wiped away their deficits just with that one event, looking at a place like Franklin, out in Macon County, they had been about four inches below normal over the past three months, and they saw about four inches from this event. So it’s rare that when you’re in that much of a deficit, one event can wipe away those deficits, but it certainly did where they had some of that heavier rain. We also saw some improvements up across the northern Piedmont into the Triad of North Carolina. These are also places that saw a little bit heavier rain in that inch to inch and a half range, some areas close to two inches from that event earlier this week, but South Carolina not as much change this week. And again, these are areas that did not see quite as much rain, and where that rain also moved in a little bit later. So we’ll see what happens this weekend, and see if maybe we can pull back some of that drought by next week.”
Well, with that in mind, let’s talk about the forecast. Is that going to take care of some drought for us?
“We’re certainly seeing some showers out there already today. There’s a low pressure system that’s swinging southward across the Carolinas during the day today, and that will bring off and on showers across North and South Carolina throughout the day and into first thing on Saturday morning. In terms of totals, we’re expecting maybe in the quarter to half inch range further south, right along the Virginia border, some areas could see closer to an inch. So as you mentioned, Mike, that’s about average for this time of the year. It may actually still be up a low normal week for some areas further south. So would probably not be enough to make a difference on the drought map for next week, but again, we’ll see where that rain falls. We’ll certainly take a closer look on Tuesday on our state drought call for North and South Carolina, and hope that at least this helps stabilize conditions for a lot of the farmers. One other report that we got on our drought call this week was from eastern North Carolina in Martin County. They said that some of the crops are starting to go into the ground now, so some dry weather at this time of the year is not the worst thing that could happen, but they do need some rain, especially once those crops are planted or transplanted, to be able to get them really to take root and get going here in the growing season.”
Farmers need it dry when they need it dry and they need it wet when they need it wet. Come on, Mother Nature, get with the program.
“Yeah, that’s right. You know, a quarter inch in a week is not a lot. Sometimes it’s not enough for the farmers. But yet, one other bit of good news we saw from last week is that pretty much all that rain was concentrated on one day. It was on Monday, so that gave the farmer six solid days for field work and then one day to take a break and watch the rain come down.”