USDA’s December Hogs and Pigs Report put the December 1 inventory at 75.8 million head. That’s down about a percentage point from the previous quarter but up a half percent from last year. University of Missouri Agricultural Economist Jason Franken says it was the size of the September through November pig crop that captured the trade’s attention.
“The main surprise in the report is record September-November pig crop, up more than two percent from a year ago and just above the upper end of the range of pre-report expectations, as a 0.2 percent cut in sows farrowed was more than offset by 11.92 pigs per litter, up 2.3 percent from last year’s record for the period, continuing the upward trend in pigs per litter. While this level of productivity growth took the trade by surprise, partly because it is difficult to continually break records by large margins, further productivity growth is feasible, as Denmark is recently averaging around 15 pigs per litter.”
While there are more pigs per litter coming, it’s the number of market-ready hogs that drives the nearby prices. Those numbers came in about as expected from USDA, and Franken says are neutral for the marketplace. The number of pigs under 120 pounds is up from last year, and that makes the mid-term market outlook a bit bearish. Still, there are just 0.8 percent more hogs weighing under 180 pounds than a year ago. Those will go to market between January and March, implying similar supplies as last year for the period overall. That’s when things turn bearish, says Franken.
“The greater than anticipated increases in inventories of lighter weight hogs stems from the unanticipated record September-November pig crop, which also indicates bearishly higher slaughter levels for April through June. Respective slaughter levels should be similar to last year for July through September and higher for the remainder of 2025, given farrowing intentions for this winter are nearly identical to actual farrowings a year ago and those for spring at about 1.4 percent higher and more than expected. However, this all depends on whether current trends in pigs per litter persist.”
It’s the number of pigs per litter that is driving the supply side of the market. As for consumption, USDA estimates per capita domestic pork consumption at 50.5 pounds per person for 2024 and forecasts the number rising to 50.9 pounds in 2025. That figure is still below the pre-COVID-19 level of 52.1 pounds per person in 2019. Projected pork exports are revised downward, reflecting expectations for higher hog and pork prices to persist through 2025. Even so, total exports for 2025 are anticipated to be about three percent higher.