The USDA released new farm income forecast numbers, and while they’re not drastically different from previous reports this year, they seem to take on more meaning the closer we get to the end of the calendar year. Carrie Litkowski is a senior economist with USDA Economic Research Service, and says farm income is on the decline.

“Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast to decline 1.8 billion or 1% relative to 2023 in nominal dollars. Net farm income is forecast to decline $6 billion or 4%.”

She points to cash receipts as one of the main culprits.

“Much of this decline in net income follows cash receipts from commodity sales, which in total are expected to decrease $4 billion or almost 1% in 2024 due to lower receipts for crops.”

Litkowski says another source of farm income is also dropping, but there’s an offset.

“Direct government payments are forecast to decrease $1.7 billion or almost 14% from 2023 to 2024. Total production expenses are forecast to decrease $8 billion or almost 2%, moderating somewhat the expected declines in income.”

Looking at the farm balance sheet shows more of a mixed bag.

“Farm sector assets, debt and equity are each forecast to increase by about 5% in 2024 for farm businesses, average net cash farm income is forecast to decrease 3% following the sector level expectations. And lastly, we’ll take a look at those households that operate a farm where median total farm household income is forecast to increase 2.7% to $100,634 in 2024.”