What a difference a week makes, particularly in the weather. I’m Mike Davis talking with Corey Davis from the state climate office of North Carolina. And yeah, a difference in a couple of different aspects. Corey, tell us what what you’re seeing from your climatological view?

“Mike, if you think back to where we were in October and even the first half of November, we had been very warm. In fact, it’s been tracking as one of the warmest falls on record across parts of the Carolinas, but also very dry. And we had seen these drought conditions spreading back across eastern North and South Carolina. Well, last Thursday, we got our first big change, and that was a nice shot of rainfall along a cold front that moved through during the day. This is exactly the sort of rain event that we needed, just a solid, steady, day long soaking rain with an inch to two inches in some areas, especially out in northeastern North Carolina. So we’re still looking at some drought conditions on the map in those areas, but the rain last week definitely helped chip away there. And we’ve also seen a nice boost in soil moisture conditions. In fact, across North Carolina, we’ve seen the percentage of top soil moisture that’s rated as short, or very short, cut in half this week. So especially for some of the small grain growers that has given them a nice shot of soil moisture to get those grains in the ground and get them germinated before we get into the winter. The other big change that we’ve had is just this morning, that cold weather that we’re finally seeing. You know, the average first freeze date is sometime in late October to early November across central and eastern North Carolina. Well, most of those areas had not seen a freeze yet this season, so we’re a few weeks later than average for that first freeze, but we’re at least seeing a pretty widespread frost and then a freeze in some areas this morning, with temperatures down in the low to mid 30s.”

So with the late freeze, probably nobody really complaining about that, and probably a lot of happy farmers out there with that moisture that we got last week.

“That’s right. The one unusual thing with how warm this fall had been and how late that freeze had been is that even after some of the crops had already been harvested, they were starting to see new growth. They were seeing new plants sprouting out of the ground because it had been so warm and freeze free lately. So I dare say this morning, we’ll put an end to any of that lingering growth here in the fall. But you’re right. I think the farmers overall are going to be pretty happy after that last round of rain last week. We’ve heard in South Carolina that the pastures are doing a little bit better down there. They’ve started to grow, but still a little bit behind for the season. And in fact, some of the livestock farmers down there have been feeding supplemental hay already, just with the lack of hay growth that we’ve had so far in the season. But again, overall, a nice improvement from that rain last week and for a lot of the crops. This pretty much gets us to where we would expect to be at this time of the year, going out of the fall and going into the winter.”

We’re getting to the end of November, which means the end of the hurricane season. Not aware of any activity in the Atlantic right now. And as we kind of look back over this season, where do we stand? I recall early in hurricane season that that you placed some bits in North Carolina. That’s legal now. And you placed some bets, and one of them was on the number of named hurricanes in North Carolina. Are you, are you going to be over or under, or are you, are you taking home some money?

“Well, Mike, safe to say, I’m not going to cash in on that bet. But it was close. If you remember how this hurricane season started, we had a pretty quick flurry of activity, with three named storms back in June, and then a month or two in July and August, with almost no storms forming. So that really set us behind pace from where we expected we might be. And of course, by September, we saw that activity pick up. You think about storms like Helene that we had here in the Carolinas, Milton down in Florida, and we’ve even seen some activity continuing into October and even early November this year, but that puts us at 18 named storms for the season. So far. There is no activity out there in the Atlantic right now, so it looks like we will be under that number of 20 that I thought we would reach the season. So it ended up being closer than maybe we expected at the end, but still not quite to that point. It’s worth noting, though, Mike, this was still an above average season in terms of activity. The historical average is 14 named storms in a year, so we were over that. And as we often say, it often it only takes one storm to make for a memorable season in your area. And boy, here in the Carolinas. We had a couple. We had Debby in August, and then Helene in September, two very damaging, very memorable storms here for our part of the country.”

One last question before we go and correct me if I get the terminology wrong, but I believe we were predicted to be heading into an El Nino pattern for this winter. Where do we stand right now? Has that fully established yet?

“So actually, it’s the flip side of that coin. Mike, this is a La Nina that we’re looking at, okay, but it’s not a certainty. There’s no guarantee that we’re going to see that La Nina come into full bloom this winter time. It’s at a pretty weak point right now, when it may stay there through the winter season. So while we still expect that may bring typical impacts of warm and dry weather overall, having a weaker pattern means those impacts may be weaker as well. There could be times where we break out of that warm and dry pattern. We could see some cooler days, possibly some more precipitation. Still tough to be too optimistic about snow this year, just knowing how warm it’s been and how warm we’re expected to be through most of the winter, but that’s what we’re looking at going into the winter season. Not great odds of having a strong La Nina, but at least a week would probably keep us warm and dry for most of the winter.“

Last but not least, let’s take a quick look at the forecast.

“Yeah, we are cooler today. We will be warming up through the weekend, low 50s today, upper 50s by tomorrow, and then by Sunday and Monday, we’ll be back above normal in the mid to upper 60s. The next best chance of rain looks like it’ll be coming in on Thanksgiving days. So your travel for Thanksgiving should be pretty dry by Thanksgiving night, and then into the early hours of Black Friday, there could be some rain moving across the Carolinas. So just keep that in mind for your outdoor football games or maybe your early shopping on Black Friday, you could need the umbrella with some rain moving in later next week.”