This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

In response to an incident that was dubbed the Great Russian Grain Robbery in the early 1970s, the USDA developed reporting requirements and releases to make the exports transparent to the market. Everytime anyone in the US makes a sale above a certain size to a foreign country, it has to be reported within a certain time and USDA reports each of those daily. Every Thursday, USDA reports all the new export sales commitments made over the course of the previous week. Every Monday, USDA reports export inspections which are the bushels that are actually loaded to leave the US rather than just sales commitments. Last week the Columbus Day holiday delayed the weekly reports by a day so we got export sales report on Friday. Friday’s report showed the highest weekly number for corn since Spring of 2023. Both soybeans and wheat were very big and at the upper end of expectations. We have also seen many daily flash sales announced over the last few weeks. Yesterday’s export inspections were also very impressive for at least corn and beans. They were both on the upper end of expectations though wheat was disappointing. The break in US prices has brought buyers from all over the world. We have the cheapest commodities in the world so we need to be exporting all we can before the Southern Hemisphere starts harvesting their new crops. Stepped up exports represents demand that we desperately need to help support the market. Buyers see value at the price levels we are at which hopefully is a good sign of support under the market. 

It is extremely dry throughout much of the Midwest and the drought monitor continues to expand. As a result, Monday’s crop progress report showed harvest continuing at a blistering pace. Soybean harvest was estimated at 81% compared to 72% this week last year (and we thought that was a fast pace) and well above the average of only 67%.Corn harvest was estimated at 65% complete compared to 55% last year on this week and well above the average pace of 52%. Mississippi levels have now dropped back to where they were before the hurricane. And the forecast is that most of the watershed will remain dry for a while so river levels are forecast to drop ever further. Once the ground freezes, it will be difficult to recharge subsoil moisture over the winter. 

Meanwhile in Brazil, they are still behind on planting pace but making progress to try to catch up. The rains in the center west regions of Brazil are expected to continue providing much needed moisture. We still have a long growing season ahead but the soybean market took a lot of weather premium out after the rains started.