The Agriculture Department is out with its newly revised forecasts for production and prices for the poultry industry, both for broilers and turkeys. Now in most years, the outlook stories for those two products are very similar, but not this time.
“Broilers and turkey, kind of opposite situations there.”
With a promising outlook for broiler producers, troubling times for the turkey folks. This from USDA Outlook Board Chairman Mark Jekanowski. He says, despite the possibility of somewhat lower broiler prices in the coming months, the outlook for the nation’s broiler producers looks pretty good. He says the broiler industry next year set to boost output by more than half a billion pounds, and partly as a result of that increase, broiler prices may fall by a tiny 1/3 of one cent per pound next year, down to $1.28 a pound.
“But still overall fairly favorable market outlook for broilers, and looking at good margins into 2025 especially with the lower feed costs.”
Which are, in some cases, running 20 to 30% lower than last year. So that’s the good side, the good news side of things, the broiler side. But for the nation’s turkey producers, it’s not the greatest of times right now.
“Production continues to decline and prices are declining as well.”
Jakanowski says turkey producers have been trying to keep production down and support prices get them up at least stable in the face of declining consumer demand for turkey. USDA has lowered its forecasts for this year’s turkey production down to about 5 billion pounds.
“Lowest US production since 1995 but even despite that, margins are still weak, and we’re not looking at much improvement into 2025 either.”
But maybe some improvement. Let’s look at the turkey price situation. USDA is projecting for this year an average price of…
“93.7 cents per pound. We lowered that again this month, and then for next year, we’re forecasting an improvement, just given how low prices currently are, and some optimism that demand might improve into next year, turkey prices for 2025 forecast at $1.03 per pound.”
Not a great price, but it would be about nine cents higher than this year.