USDA’s Economic Research Service forecasts that U.S. net cash farm income will decrease by $42.2 billion, or 25.8 percent, to $121.7 billion in 2024 in inflation-adjusted dollars. This is after net farm cash income decreased in 2023 by a forecast of $50.2 billion to $163.9 billion.

Net cash farm income is defined as gross cash income minus cash expenses. Net farm income is forecast to decrease by $43.1 billion to $116.1 billion from 2023 to 2024. Net farm income is a broader measure of farm sector profitability that incorporates noncash items, including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income.

Cash receipts for farm commodities are projected to fall by $32.2 billion to $485.5 billion in 2024.

Production expenses are expected to increase by $7.2 billion, or 1.6 percent, to $455.1 billion in 2024. Also, total commodity insurance indemnity payments are forecasted to fall by $1.5 billion in 2024, and direct government payments to farmers are projected to fall by $2.2 billion from 2023 levels to $10.2 billion in 2024.