This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.

The markets are closed today, Friday April 18th for the Easter holiday. Volume has been light and ranges small this week as it seems a lot of traders took the whole week off. Outside markets remain very volatile with the geopolitical risks not backing off much. On the flip side, there has not been a huge escalation this week either so we will have to take that as a win. We got the March NOPA crush report this week which showed March soybean crush a little lower than what the market was expecting. However, it has rebounded substantially from February and was just below the March record set last year so it is on a better path than what it looked like in February. Soybean oil demand has also rebounded significantly with soy oil stocks well below expectations as we typically see oil stocks building this time of year. That is despite significantly higher oil yield from the crush which is encouraging. While there has not been anything announced officially on the biofuel policy from the administration, the rumors and news items coming out of the negotiations remain very positive for renewable diesel.

Ethanol production ticked lower this week but that is expected during the month of April and ethanol stocks also ticked lower so there is nothing really concerning there. Corn sales this week were at a very strong 9 week high and on the higher end of a wide range of expectations. We saw several flash sales this week to countries we do not normally see from giving further evidence of how tight corn is in the world. The US has the only corn available right now until Brazilian second crop corn can make it to the ports which will be August. Soybean sales were also within expectations and at a five-week high. Wheat sales were minimal but positive. The market is encouraged that exports have not fallen off a cliff and buys the market some time and patience to see how the trade war plays out. 

ADM announced this week that they will be closing their soybean crush plant at Kershaw, SC. The push for renewable diesel has dramatically increased domestic crush to supply the new demand for soybean oil. That increased crush also increased meal supply without a big increase in demand. That has put pressure on smaller crush plants like Kershaw who cannot achieve the economies of scale. This closure will cause a significant challenge to logistics to those in the immediate area tributary to Kershaw. The beans that were going there will be split between the export market, Fayetteville, NC and Gainesville, GA. Kershaw crush has been on the decline for several years now which will help mute some of the effect. As long as container demand remains close to historic levels this fall at harvest, the other markets will be able to absorb the beans that used to go to Kershaw. We have enough demand for the beans, it will just take some time to adjust to the new logistics. 

Temps have warmed and seeds are going in the ground. It’s a wonderful time of year! I hope everyone has a good Easter!