We were waiting to see what kind of an impact the recent rains have had on the Drought Monitor. And NC Assistant State Climatologist Corey Davis, it looks like we did indeed get a nice bump in some soil moisture.
“Yeah, Mike, it was a really solid rain event last weekend into the first part of this week. Really all across the Carolinas, we had a cold front that came into the western part of the state late Saturday night, across the state on Sunday afternoon, and then there was another round of rain following that on Monday along the coast in North Carolina. So all told, most areas saw at least an inch of rain, and we had pockets of eastern North and South Carolina that picked up two to four inches, especially up along Interstate 95 so the most rain those areas have seen in several months now, and we have seen the benefits of that. The soil moisture levels have gotten a nice boost. The stream levels have gotten a nice boost, and that’s reflected in the latest US Drought Monitor map. We’ve now chipped away at some of that moderate and severe drought that had been across eastern North and South Carolina, again, mainly up along the interstate 95 so again, not a drought Buster event. These areas are still looking at deficits of three to four inches over the past three months, but definitely a good start to getting rid of some of that drought.”
Are there any areas of the Carolinas that are still in abnormally dry or really in bad shape right now?
“Well, we’ve got one pocket of severe drought left, mainly right along the border of Pender and on slow counties in southeastern North Carolina. This is an area that did not get quite as much rain last week. Some years there were only around half an inch. Well, when, you know, 10 miles to the east, 10 miles to the west, they were well over an inch. And that’s part of the state where, especially at this time of the year, they start to worry about wildfires. This is an area where you’ve got large expanses of land, like the holly shelter game land. They’ve had big fires there historically, fortunately, none in those areas recently. But again, that’s always a concern when they’re that dry at this time of the year. The other area that was in better shape about a month ago in mid February is Northwestern North Carolina getting into the northern foothills. Those areas really missed out on most of the rain last week, so starting to get a little bit bigger deficits in those areas. And we heard in our state drought call in North Carolina this week from Burke County Extension. They said they’re now seeing some of those cereal grains and winter crops fall a little bit behind. So they need a little bit more rain here over the next month or two to really help those crops catch up to where they should be as they finish that harvest.”
Temperatures have been interesting lately. We’ve gotten a lot of warm days now. It looks like spring is springing, sprung perhaps, but that’s during the day. At night time, it seems to be be unusually cool. What’s up with that?
“Yeah, this is the time of year, Mike, when we expect to see those big day to night temperature variations. Again, we’re still coming out of the winter, so we can tap into some cold air from time to time, and especially when we’ve got those cool, clear nights. That really helps a lot of that heat escape during the nighttime hours, and at the same time, we’re starting to get longer and longer days, so that means more sunlight, more chance to warm up. And again, we have seen a little bit of both. Over the last few weeks, we’ve had afternoons that have made it up into the 80s. That’s more typical of the middle of May than the middle of March, and we’ve had some nights even this week that have been pretty cool. In fact, out in the New Bern area, they dropped down as cool as 34 degrees on Wednesday, so very close to a frost or freeze event. It’s worth noting also, Mike, that this is right around the time of the year that places like New Bern and other coastal areas will expect to see their last freeze. So we’re starting to get out of that window when those freezes typically happen. Looking at the forecast for the next week, really no good chance of a freeze across the eastern part of North and South Carolina. So I know farmers there will be chomping at the bit to get on the fields and start that planting with that freeze risk increasingly in the rear view mirror.”
Can they go ahead and start putting stuff in the ground?
“You know, again, looking at the forecast for the next week or two, we really don’t see any big threats of a frost or freeze event across eastern North Carolina in the past, thinking back to a year like 2007 we did have the notorious Easter freeze in the middle of April that year. That was a fairly late and long lived event. But if things sort of keep up with the trend they’ve been on, I don’t think they have to worry about freezing temperatures anytime soon. If anything, it looks like we will continue that above normal temperature trend at least over the next week.”
Before we get into the details of the forecast, I have to ask you. In the Midwest now, we’ve had some crazy weather. Is that the system that we can expect to see coming this way, and what’s it going to bring for us?
“Well, Mike, we actually did see that cold front come through. Yesterday afternoon, a lot tamer weather here. We just picked up some light rain showers in most areas. But you’re right, as that system was moving across the country earlier this week, just some wild weather extremes on the front edge of that front, in places like Illinois and Indiana, we saw severe weather and some tornadoes on the back edge of that system. In the cold air mass, we saw that precipitation falling as snow. Places like Lincoln, Nebraska had five to six inches of snow, which even out there is a lot for this time of the year. So again, a little bit of both the winter and the spring extremes. But by the time it made its way to us last night, a lot less intense weather. We did pick up some decent rain in some areas, and we’ll have another shot of rain coming up on Monday after we get through the weekend.”