Well, the calendar says February, but the temperature might say otherwise. Can’t make up its mind right now. Let’s find out what’s going on from North Carolina assistant state climatologist Corey Davis. The roller coaster ride continues. What is going on, Corey?

“Yeah, Mike, this is that time of the year when Mother Nature can’t decide what season it wants to be, so it’s just going to be all of them. And you’re right. It has been a roller coaster ride, really, dating back about two and a half or three weeks, if you remember that snow event that we had back in the middle of January, we had some downright cold temperatures associated with that event. Several days the highest barely made it out of the 20s. That was more than 20 degrees below normal for this time of the year. And right after that snow event, parts of eastern North and South Carolina had low temperatures down in the teens and even the single digits in some spots. So we were very much locked into winter only a couple weeks ago, but what we’ve seen since then was a steady warm up through the last week of January. In fact, the last few days of the month, we had temperatures up in the 70s across eastern North and South Carolina, and then the first week of February has been a little bit of everything. We’ve had some cooler afternoons and some cloudy days, but also some really warm ones. Back on Tuesday, earlier this week, we had high temperatures of 80 degrees in places like Raleigh and Charlotte and Spartanburg, South Carolina, that was a record high for the Raleigh area for that day of the year. So even though we’ve seen in January those 20 degree below normal days, so far in February, we’ve seen 20 to 30 degrees above normal at times.”

What do we have to blame for this? I know we had talked some time ago about, I believe it was an El Nino pattern we were supposed to be in. Is that the reason behind all this, or exactly what’s going on?

“Yeah, this has been mainly due to some of those local weather systems and patterns that have been affecting us. At times, we’ve had high pressure that’s been setting up right over us or just off the coast, that tends to give a more southerly wind flow that brings warmer air into our region, but also we’ve seen some cold fronts that have come through, and that has ushered in some cooler temperatures, including the ones that we had back in mid January. So at times, we had arctic air that was pouring in in January, and now we’ve seen downright tropical air that’s coming in in at least a few days so far in February.”

I want to get back to that in just a moment, what we can expect maybe for the next week or so. But I would be remiss if I didn’t bring up this past Sunday was February the second that is Groundhog Day. Now, how can I be talking with a climatologist without asking about Punxsutawney Phil and his ilk? What do you think about Phil’s forecast for more winter?

“Well, Mike, I’ve got a bone to pick with this groundhog. You know, I think he does a great job of sleeping all winter and then telling us something about the temperature, but for an animal that lives in the ground, feel like he should really tell us more about drought and where we’re headed in that direction. And certainly that would be useful for farmers to have at this time of the year. If you think ahead about six weeks, that takes us out to early to mid April, that’s certainly the time of the year when you’re starting that planting, getting those crops in the ground. So I think for the groundhog, maybe he can have higher aspirations for next year, not just tell us about the temperatures, but also where drought is headed. And what we can say right now is that drought has become pretty well entrenched, especially across North Carolina, also parts of northeastern South Carolina as well. And this is really a product of rainfall deficits dating back to the fall immediately after Hurricane Helene came through. That’s when we started getting into that dry pattern in October, and it’s really been unrelenting since then, most areas have been below normal pretty much every week over the fall and winter so far. And when we look at some of the rainfall deficits, just since the beginning of winter in early December, we’re seeing most places are two to four inches below normal. So certainly every week that goes by, those are growing because we’re only seeing about half an inch or so in most cases. So I think for the ground talk, that’s something to focus on for next year, not only which way our temperatures may be headed, but also which way drought may be headed as we head out of the winter.”

I’ll drop a memo to Phil and ask him about that, and Sir Walter Wally as well. But in the in the meantime, where we are with drought right now? That could be having an adverse effect on those winter crops, like winter wheat, strawberries and things like that.

“Absolutely, yeah, and again, it’s just been an unrelenting dry pattern over the last three to four months, just not seeing the rain that we would expect every week. The one thing that’s been a nice blessing for the farmers, especially in eastern North Carolina, in those areas that saw the heavier snow last month is that that moisture from the snow that has soaked in more slowly over time has at least helped keep those topsoil moisture conditions a little bit better if we go further inland, especially right along the I 95 corridor. Some of the places that only saw an inch or two of snow from that event, they’re already seeing some of those top soils dry out, and certainly the subsoil is not in any better shape. And that’s really raised the concern that if and when we do get into that warmer pattern here, maybe as early as February, that we could start to see those drought impacts really jump out. The soils will be dry, the streams will be dry. Some of the lake levels may also be declining as we start to see more evaporation. So we’ve already seen in western North Carolina. The fire season is getting going as well. This is pretty early to start seeing wildfire activity, but out of McDowell County, they’ve had several big, multi 100 acre fires burning over the last couple weeks. So again, that could be a preview of what’s to come if we don’t get some rain soon. So that’s the question. What does our forecast hold for us? Well, one thing we can say for sure is that roller coaster ride will continue the pattern that we’re looking at over the next few days, is a cold front moving in later on today, as that sag southward across the region. That’ll put us a little bit cooler, especially as we start the weekend on Saturday. But then that front should ride back to the North as a warm front on Sunday, that should make for some more downright warm conditions in the mid to upper 70s, and some areas by Sunday afternoon. And then finally, that cold front should head back the other way and put us on the cold side for Monday. Looks like high temperatures down in the 40s on Monday and Tuesday of next week. So as long as that front is sitting over us, we’ll at least have a chance of rain showers just about every day. The better chances of rain may not come until next Tuesday or Wednesday, and at that point, it looks like it could finally be one of the good, significant rain events that we’ve waited for months for some of the forecasts have been showing an inch and a half of rain, especially in areas further north and west, but this should still be a pretty widespread soaking rain event as we head toward the middle of next
week.”

Rain, but not frozen precipitation.

“At this point it looks like mostly rain. There have been some forecasts that have shown maybe a little bit of ice right along the Virginia border on Monday evening. But again, at that point, you’re not talking about very much accumulation if it does end up being any ice. But at this point, we’ll take the precipitation in any form that we can get, it whether that’s rain or frozen. And luckily, it looks like a pretty solid rain on the way.”