What to make of USDA’s October crop production forecast? Chief Economist Seth Meyer starts with analysis.

“We had a little bit of a yield increase in corn. Yield was up two tenths of a bushel from the previous estimate, and that was pretty much in line with what trade expectations were. Let’s note that this remains the second biggest corn crop in US history. We look at beans, and despite the fact that we reduced bean yields a little bit, 1/10 of a bushel, this is the largest soybean crop in history. From a combination of both being a record high yield and being a large area, the soybean production number was right in the dead center of the range of trade expectations.”

The chief economist says one number that perhaps drew attention was an over-300,000 bail reduction in cotton production forecast, some of that associated with Georgia’s cotton crop impacted by Hurricane Helene.

“Georgia itself was down about 400,000 bales. It was one of the places hit hardest by Helene as it came ashore. Majority of cotton remained open bowl at that point, and so we lost, according to NASS estimates, currently, 400,000 bales in Georgia. We gained some of that back in Texas, which was up about 300,000 bales, Texas being the biggest cotton producer, and then some other declines elsewhere. So we netted down 300,000 bales.”

Meanwhile, a caveat for this month’s USDA all-orange production forecast courtesy of Mark Hudson of the National Agricultural Statistics Service.

“All the measurements for the October forecast were done prior to the arrival of Milton…
…which carved a path through Florida orange orchards in the central part of the state. Even with the numbers reflecting a pre Milton period, Florida’s first all-orange forecast for the season indicates…
…overall down 16% for 15 million boxes. California’s was 39 million. That is what you call the navel oranges, and 8.7 million of Valencia, for 47.7 for all oranges.”

Bringing in domestic all orange production. Forecast for October at 2.6 2 billion tons, down 5% from the 2023-24 final utilization. This includes Texas reporting 850,000 tons of production this season.