This is the SFN Market Report with Brooks Schaffer of Palmetto Grain. Reach him at [email protected] or 843-540-4540.
Market is closely following the ProFarmer crop tour going across the Midwest this week. At the time of this recording, we have gotten the tour yield for Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana, South Dakota and Ohio. Thursday at 8pm, we got the tour yield for Iowa and Minnesota but it was after I recorded so was not able to include them. Today, Friday after the close, ProFarmer analysts will use the tour yields, satellite data and weather conditions to forecast state yields for each state and a national yield. The yields we got for each state so far this week are just the averages along the tour route, not necessarily representative of the whole state. The tour has traveled the same route since 1993 so we can use the tour yields to compare to previous years but the statewide numbers we get this afternoon are better to compare to USDA’s August estimates. I will include USDA’s August numbers here since we do not have today’s numbers yet.
For Illinois, the tour result was 204.14 compared to USDA’s last estimate of 225 and last year’s tour result of 193.72. In Nebraska, the tour average was 173.25 lower than USDA’s estimate of 194 but higher than last year’s tour average of 167.22. In Indiana, the tour average was 187.54 lower than USDA at 207 but higher than last year’s tour at 180.89. These are the states that are expected to pull the average higher. USDA has Illinois at a whopping 225 yield but the tour found lower. I see these yields as a little bit friendly to the market compared to what I was expecting from these states. There are other forces weighing on the corn market but this at least does not dash the bulls hopes that August USDA number was the highest yield we will see. With good rains and cool temps through July and the first half of August, the bears are expecting yields to grow.
Two states that were lower than last year were Ohio and South Dakota, which was widely expected. The Ohio tour yield was 183.29, lower than USDA’s August estimate of 188 and just barely lower than last years tour result of 183.4. South Dakota’s tour average was 155.51. That was below USDA’s August estimate of 162.0 and below last year’s tour average of 157.42.
Iowa and Minnesota are going to be key as to which way the average is going to go and then this afternoon’s updated statewide estimates will be closely watched. There were stand issues noted even in states that are supposed to be a record. It is going to be hard to break records if there are holes but only time will tell. The market had at least been trading sideways until pressured by weakness in beans and wheat. And we continue to gain demand in exports and ethanol which are good things.
The tour scouts do not estimate bean yield and only pod counts are included in the daily state averages. The pod counts were almost universally higher than last year and much higher in many cases. There is very high yield potential in beans and that is why the market has been under so much pressure despite exports picking up. The season is finishing hot and dry and will no doubt result in some loss of that potential but for right now the market remains under selling pressure.
The ProFarmer data we get today will be closely watched and the next big set of data we get will be USDA’s Sept report that comes out on Sept 12th at noon. They will update yield again using producer surveys and satellite data like the last report and adding in objective yield estimates from the field.