US agricultural exports continue to slow. Ag imports continue to grow. USDA economist James Kaufman says we now have complete trade numbers for the first eight months of this fiscal year, October through May. And here’s what the numbers say.

“Agricultural exports in May or at $13.7 billion down almost 2% from the previous May. This puts us exports for fiscal year 2024 at 122 point 4,000,000,005% or $6 billion lower than the same period in fiscal 2023.”

The biggest export value declines coming in bulk products. Kaufman says bulk product sales overall are down 18% from this time a year ago. We have wheat exports down 18% corn, 7% cotton down by 11%.

“The main problem is soybean exports, and especially soybean exports to China.”

Kaufman says, in terms of metric tons of us beans going to China during the first eight months of this fiscal year…

“This year, the US exported 23 point 4 million metric tons, as opposed to 30.5 million metric tons the previous year. This is a 23% decrease in soybean export volumes to China.”

Kaufman says China still importing lots of soybeans, just not from us, mostly from Brazil, which has a big supply and competitive prices. So in terms of export volume, total US soybean exports to the world for this season are down 19%. In terms though of soybean export value it’s even worse. We’re down 29% from this time a year ago. However, it’s not all bad news on exports.

“High value product exports have fared a bit better than bulk commodities, and they’re up 4% in fiscal year 2024.”

With some pretty large increases for several high value products, including fresh fruit, up 22%, ethanol 23%, tree nut exports running 25% ahead of a year ago. Meanwhile though, we’re importing more ag products, 4% more than this time a year ago.