Last year we saw US agricultural export and import values growing with imports in 2022, growing faster than exports, but so far in the first 10 months of this calendar year now we’re seeing decreases in both export values and imports. USDA economist Bart Kenner says for the first 10 months of this year the calendar year, ag exports were at $143.3 billion.

Down 18.2% from the previous year. Agricultural imports are $163.3 billion, down 3.1% from last year.

And as we said earlier, import values had been growing rapidly due partly to inflation sending unit prices much higher. But Kenner says…

That inflation has started to ease and volumes are continuing to stay pretty consistent. And so we’re starting to see some of that decrease import value overall over last year, as those prices start to come down a little bit. And of course, we’re seeing decreased unit values and exports as well.

So taking a look at the big four bulk commodities and their export values…

Exports of wheat for January through October 2023 or $5.3 billion down 29% from last year. corn exports are $11.1 billion down 33% from last year. soybean exports are $21.4 billion down 10% from last year and cotton exports are $5.4 billion down 35% from last year.

So the overall value level of US exports is declining. USDA recently put out its forecast for fiscal year 2024 Which we’re in now projecting exports to fall another 5% below this past fiscal year again, mostly due not to declines in the volume of exports, but in the unit prices.