Vigilance Key to Profitable 2012 Cotton Crop

The past few weeks, a play sheet, score card and a road map have been needed to keep up with cotton futures. We began to accept that they were down, then all of a sudden they began to move up. Chief Economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, Bob Young:
 

“Well, that’s true, we got…well, actually I think we got used to them being up, and then they changed on us. And, you know, all that stuff’s been going on as well, you know. We found more cotton around the world as time’s gone on, planted a lot more cotton and things of that nature, and market’s are reacting to all that.”
 

There’s been some limit up days, even enough in a row to expand the limit, but Wednesday wasn’t one of them:
 

“Well, I think that’s true, we’ve had some weather scares, but, you know markets…markets are reacting the way markets do.”
Some of the big moves in the past week can be attributed to a large sale to China:
 

“And, you know, I think they’re thinking that there’s a lot of demand there, potential demand there, but, again with that big crop that’s a potential here in the United States, big supplies around the world, you know it is a market that’s going to be very bouncy, I guess, if you will, is the right word, for a number of days to come.”
 

And what would Young suggest to a producer with an open cotton crop:
 

“Well, that’s kind of a hard one to say at this stage of the game. I’d be inclined to take advantage of those price pops when they did occur. From here on out, here again, unless we have a weather event, unless we get some situations where we might get some of those price pops, I just don’t see that there’s going to be a whole lot that’s going to move this market for us as we move forward from here. I’d be inclined to maybe sit on things for a while, and again, waiting, if one of those weather days happens when the market does decide to react to some of those weather days, big sales to China, something like that, I’d be ready to move on one of those events.”
 

So, extra vigilance in keeping an eye on futures prices could be the key to profitability for the 2012 cotton crop.
American Farm Bureau Federation Chief Economist Bob Young on Today’s Topic. For all your market information, every trading day, visit our website, SFNToday.com
 


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