Reuters has polled 17 analysts ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks report due out Friday. The analysts expect USDA’s report will show stocks as of September 1 – also the ending stocks for the 2011-12 marketing year – at 1.113-billion bushels. That would mark the lowest supply of corn on that date in eight years. USDA pegged 2011-12 ending stocks at 1.181 in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates released earlier this month.
Jefferies Bache analyst Shawn McCambridge provided the highest estimate to Reuters at 1.261-billion bushels. With the quick maturity and fast harvest – McCambridge believes more than a billion bushels went to market before the end of the crop year. He says that is going to complicate things. The lowest estimate Reuters saw from analysts was 887-million. That would fall below the 958-million bushel figure of 2003-04. The estimate comes from Roy Huckabay of the Linn Group – who said he was not accounting for any of the early harvested corn.
The Reuters poll showed U.S. wheat stocks on September 1 at 2.278-billion bushels – up from 2.147-billion a year ago – and soybean stocks at 131-million – down from 215-million a year ago.