Projected Corn Yields Clipped by Late Planting

Corn and soybean production forecasts are up sharply in the latest USDA World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates – though late planting has clipped corn yields a bit. The numbers are still tentative with planting far from done. U.S. corn and soybean numbers this season are forecast at record or near-record levels – though World Ag Outlook Board Chair Gerald Bange says wet weather has taken a bite out of corn yields – down by about six-bushels from a February Ag Outlook Forum forecast…

“It looks like a yield of about 150 per acre. It’s a strong possibility assuming that over the next week or so they have the kind of planting progress we think they can make.”

But an expected huge planted area could mean a 14.1-billion bushel crop – up 3.4-billion from last year’s drought-ravaged crop. Record corn supplies this year of around 2-billion bushels also mean lower prices…

“We are looking at a mid point price of about $4.70 per bushel compared to the record of $6.90 that we will achieve in 12-13.”

Planting weather may not be an issue for soybeans – planted about a month later than corn…

“We are looking at a yield of 44.5 bushels per acre, which is exactly what we were saying back at the forum as there has been no adjustment with regard to late planting. It turns out that 3.39 billion bushels would be a record.”

Up about 12-percent from last season on a yield of 44.5-bushels per acre – up nearly five-bushels from last season. Higher soybean ending stocks are expected to knock down the season-average price to 10-50 per bushel from last season’s 14-30. Wheat production is forecast off nine-percent from last year – supplies down seven-percent – largely on drought and frost in the Southern Plains. The all wheat season-average price is projected at 6-80 – down a dollar from last season on record world production.

On a separate front – the House Ag Committee is now out with its farm bill proposal that calls for just under 40-billion in cuts over 10-years – more than 20-billion from food stamps – 14-billion from farm and crop insurance programs – 7-billion from conservation – and 6-billion in sequester reductions. Gone – as in the Senate plan – are direct payments – replaced by revenue protection alternatives.


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