Long Term Outlook Shows Trade Issues to Define the Next Ten Years

A long-term outlook from the Department of Agriculture predicts trade will continue to dictate the agriculture sector over the next ten years, with the agricultural sector continuing to adjust to the ongoing China-U.S. trade dispute.

USDA’s Agriculture Projections to 2028 report out this week shows an improved scenario, including a continued increase in trade, supporting growing global demand for agricultural products, but slowing global economic growth rates and a relatively strong dollar are expected to weigh on growth in U.S. agricultural exports. The 102-page report does predict increases in nearly all U.S. agricultural exports, adding developing countries will continue to account for most of the growth.

Current trade tariffs are limiting demand, and the report assumes those tariffs to continue through the projection period. Any trade outcome with China could drastically change U.S. exports to China, making the trade talks a vital step for the next ten years.