Long Range Weather Guidance Hard to Pin Down

In many different respects it’s been an odd summer when it comes to weather, and NC State Climatologist Ryan Boyles says expect more of the same:

“We have been in a persistent trough over the eastern US all summer. It looks like it wont change but for subtle variations. The outlook for the next two months is for generally the same pattern. We will see major cold fronts come through. As we go into the fall, we will see more cool weather and less of the heat and sunshine that we would expect in August.”

Ordinarily this is the time of year when long-range guidance is more predictable, but Boyles says this is no ordinary year:

“In September, we can usually see what is going to happen out over the tropical Pacific Ocean, and how it will evolve. Once it starts to evolve, it usually persists and gives us meaningful guidance. But we never had that in the springtime and usually by this time we know what is happening and we can have a good 6 month forecast, but this year we just don’t have that.”

For whatever this summer has been where you live, Boyles says don’t forget, we’re still in tropical storm season:

“Certainly for a lot of locations in NC, its easily the wettest summer on record. But for parts of eastern and central NC, its maybe not the wettest, but a little more mixed. But we haven’t gotten into tropical storm season yet. And with the one storm out there now and potentially more, there is always a big question mark this time of year if we will suddenly get a big onset of 10 inches of rain. And that can take what would just be a wet summer and turn it into a catastrophe.”
 

NC State Climatologist Dr. Ryan Boyles.


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