Latest WASDE & Ag Supply and Demand Numbers

Record corn numbers – higher soybean exports – a bigger wheat crop – all in the latest USDA Crop Supply and Demand Reports. World Ag Outlook Board Chair Gerald Bange says the market saw the bearish corn numbers coming – with planted area of nearly 96-million acres – harvested area just over 89-million – and a record 166-bushel yield…
 

“Especially if you look at the states of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa and Ohio, that crop is going in very, very fast, and has emerged at a record pace, so we’re seeing very rapid crop development, which usually translates into very good yields. Having said that, I hasten to add that July weather will be extremely important.”
 

But right now – USDA puts the corn harvest at a nearly 15-billion bushel record – up 20-percent from last year – stocks up 1-billion-plus and 2012-13 corn prices down 25-percent at 4-60 a bushel…

“We’ll start out the 2012-13 year with 851 million bushels, we’ll end the year with 1.1881 billion bushels, that’s an increase of a little over one billion bushels, and a 121% increase from the beginning. That will result in a stocks-to-use ratio of about 13.7% which is about double what it was at the end of 2011-12, and as a result of that we’re going to see that average market price for corn come down roughly 25% to $4.60, compared to $6.10 in 2011-12.”
 

Corn use for ethanol is stuck at 5-billion bushels on falling gasoline demand and record ethanol stocks – prompting this from Bange…

“We’re at the blend wall right now, that’s why you’re not seeing this five billion bushel number increase from year to year.”
Meantime – corn exports are up 200-million bushels to 1.9-billion – helped by lower wheat feeding and some increased demand from China. Soybean exports are also pegged higher on smaller South American crops…

“For Argentina and Brazil, given the fact that their production is not reaching or attaining the levels that it could, and they’re not in as good a condition as they were last year. We do see more export potential for US soybeans and to that end we’ve increased our estimate for the 11-12 year by 25 million bushels, to 1.315 billion bushels, and for the 12-13 year to 1.505 billion bushels an increase of 190 million bushels from the current year.”

With current year-record soybean prices of 12-35 and another record of 13-dollars expected in 2012-13.
 


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