Economists at one international bank says the absence of an EU-UK trade deal on January 1, 2021, would cause significant economic losses on both sides for companies active in food and agriculture supply chains.
Rabobank researchers say companies in the food supply chain should be prepared for loss of export and import opportunities. A certainty of a no-deal scenario is that the European Union will consider the United Kingdom a third country and will apply import tariffs on UK food and agriculture products, just as the EU does on imports from other countries. Import increases related to agriculture would likely include dairy, red meats, sugar, and consumer foods, among other categories.
Rabobank says that without a trade deal, export volumes out of the UK to the EU will shrink to almost negligible levels in most cases. Tariff levels range from 30 percent, for beef, dairy and sugar, to 10-30 percent for pork and poultry, and ten percent for some fruits and vegetables, beverages and fertilizers.