The tropics quieted down as fast as they heated up, and Corey Davis, Applied Climatologist with the North Carolina State Climate Office says it’s a little unusual to see activity come abruptly to a halt:
“That’s right we usually talk about the middle of September to be the peak of hurricane season, but we don’t expect that peak to be like a cliff, to suddenly fall off and have no storms at all. Of course, we had Irma, and Jose’ and Maria that were all out in the Atlantic, but pretty much as soon as those storms got swept out to sea, we started to see a change in conditions across the Atlantic. Now, we’ve actually got quite strong wind shear over the main development region, so when these waves come off of Africa, they’re pretty much getting immediately torn apart by that wind shear. And it’s pretty much present all the way from the coast of Africa, to the Caribbean to off the east coast, as well.
“At least, for now, it doesn’t look like any systems are promising for development. It’s still mid-October, we still have about a month and a half of hurricane season, but there are no signs now that we’ll see another big wave of activity like we had about a month ago.”
These big wind shears, that is something that a really arrested our tropical activity a couple of summers ago, and it was in place for a good many months. Is that what you anticipate here, that that wind shear will be in place for quite some time and our tropical activity is pretty much over with?
“It’s tough to say that the activity is over with for the season, you could always get an odd storm or two. For instance they just had Hurricane Ophelia that was way far out in the northeastern Atlantic, and it’s remnants made landfall in Ireland and Scotland. You can never rule out a strange storm in a part of the Atlantic basin. But, as far as large scale activity, having multiple storms at the same time like we had in the last month or two, it’s tough to see something like that, because for one, there is that strong shear, and also because we’re getting out of that more favorable time of the year.”