History Suggests late Planting Means Lower Corn Yields

Economists from the University of Illinois and Ohio State University say serious planting delays will result in reduced yields this year. Gary Schnitkey of IU and Carl Zulauf of OSU point out that history suggests the odds have increased for lower corn yields in 2019 compared to 2018, and soybean yields will likely not be exceptional.

Very little planting has occurred over much of the Corn Belt, as 23 percent of corn was reported planted in the top 18 corn-producing states, compared to a 46 percent average for the last five years at this time in the spring.

Late planting does not always mean that yields will be low. Fore example, in 2009 much late planting of corn occurred, and national yields were still ten bushels above trend. However, the two economists write that yields have been exceptionally higher across the Midwest recently. With delayed planting, yields are expected to be more towards average.

Higher yields kept net incomes high enough for farmers to get by last year, but that may be gone in 2019.