Economist Mike Walden: Will the Economy Grow in 2019?

This is Mary Walden with economist MW welcoming you to the economic perspective. Today’s program asks if the economy will grow in 2019.  Mike, it’s that time of year when economists like you make forecasts for the next year.  How are you and your colleagues seeing 2019?  I’ve heard more recent concerns about a recession.  So will the economy move forward or backward in 2019?

  1. Although all the final numbers aren’t in, 2018 is looking to be a good economic year
  2. GDP up 3.2% – much better than most of the years since the recession
  3. Nationally, added 2.5 million net new jobs, and over 100,000 in NC
  4. Consensus view seems to be that growth will continue in 2019, but slower
  5. I’ll say 2.7% GDP growth, vs. 3.2% in 2018
  6. Maybe 2.2 million more jobs
  7. Key for jobs is if can pull in those who have dropped out of the labor force
  8. Three big challenges: how fast Fed moves rates up, trade war, and if stock market takes a big dive

Mary:  And I’m Mary Walden for the Economic Perspective, an NC State Extension program from the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.