NASS released the first 2013 survey based yield and production forecast yesterday for most field crops in the August Crop Production report. Nationally, the corn crop is forecast at a record 13.8 billion bushels, 28 % above 2012 but down some from earlier season projections for this year. Prices increased for corn futures contracts following the report due to slightly higher earlier crop projections, but most analysts see this as temporary as ending stocks are projected to be more than adequate to handle demand.
The 2013 soybean crop is forecast at 3.26 billion bushels, up 8 % from last year’s crop and the 3rd largest on record. Cotton is forecast at 13.1 million bales, down 25 % from last year. Many southern states opted to plant more corn and soybeans this year in place of cotton. In North Carolina, corn yield is expected to equal the record of 132 bu/acre. Production is forecast at 116 million bushels, up 21 % from 2012. This will be the 2nd year in a row that most NC corn producers will have a good crop to sell, although prices are significantly lower than last year. Of course, that is good news for our livestock and poultry producers and they need some relief on feed prices. In fact, at an industry average, hog producers are showing profits as demand is outpacing reduced supplies. Soybean yield is forecast at 30 bu/acre, down from last year’s record 39 bu/acre. Production is down 23 % from last year. Soybean plantings were adjusted down 100,000 acres due to wet conditions and the late wheat harvest.
Cotton production is forecast at 670,000 bales, down sharply from last year’s 1.2 million bales. Yield is also projected to be lower than last year, at 775 lbs/ac this year compared to the record 1,014 lbs/ac in 2012. Peanut yield is forecast at 3,600 lbs/ac, down from last year’s record 4,100 lbs/ac. The total crop size is projected to be 284 million lbs, down from last year’s 435 million lbs.
Flue-cured tobacco yield is forecast at 2,000 lbs/ac, compared with 2,300 lbs/ac last year. Production is projected at 340 million lbs, down 10 % from 2012.
Courtesy NCFB & NASS