At the 22nd Annual Joint Commodities Conference in New Bern last week, NCSU Extension Specialist Dr. Ron Heiniger wrapped up his talk, as he often does, with his ‘Weather Swami”. In years past, his weather predictions in January, for the remainder of the year have been spot-on, and his predictions for 2010 were no exception:
“Let’s talk about weather here, just a second. What did I expect in 2010? I said it was going to be cold early, finally warming there, it sure was. It was wet early, everybody has agreed that I was right there. I said it was going to be dry in July and August—hot and dry, plant early if you can. That’s what I said last year, I said we were in for a year of increasing heat and drought. And we certainly were. And you avoided Swami at your own peril last year, didn’t you?”
As for Heiniger’s ‘Weather Swami’ predictions for early 2011:
“Now, we get into the real deal here. Let’s talk about 2011, cold weather in January through mid-February—now originally I thought we’d have a mild fall through December, and it didn’t happen. We had a mild fall into mid-December, and since then it’s been cold. We’re in a cycle right now; this high pressure is off the coast, what’s making this cycle happen is what the jet stream is doing. When that jet stream drops south it drops cold weather in here and we get snow, or lots of precipitation, and when it moves back north, we get warmer weather and it dries up out here. You’re going to see this fluctuation over the next several months.”
As far as weather predictions for planting season through mid-summer:
“It’s going to cold and wet through April and May, I think it’s going to get mild in March for a while, we’ll warm up for a little while, but then we’re going back into this cycle of cold, wet conditions in April and May. Where we’re going to see this cycle start to effect us is going to be in late June and early July.”
And based on those weather predictions, Heiniger had this advice for corn growers:
“So, guys what we’ve talked about with corn, I think is going to come to roost in spades this year. Get it in the field, or if you’re not going to get it into the field in early April stay out of the field until the first of May. Avoid those first two weeks of April if you can.”
Heiniger’s ‘Swami’ has high hopes for the summer, a complete about-face from 2010:
“I think we are in, though, for a nice period in mid-July through August, of cool temperatures and above average, if anything, rainfall. Guys, cotton looks doggone good under that condition, soybeans looks good in a timely rain, if you get corn in good, we’ll be sitting pretty.”
But, all in all, Heiniger is optimistic about crop conditions for 2011:
“So, I think we’ve got some opportunities here, I think we’re still waiting for the miracle, and I’m still looking for it. I can tell you one thing, it’s going to be a better year than 2010.”
NCSU Extension Specialist Dr. Ron Heiniger
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