USDA’s mid-year Acreage report, due out Thursday, may provide more questions than answers in a turbulent growing season.
In an interview with Agri-Pulse, Chief Economist Joe Glauber said the debate over how many acres of corn and soybeans actually got planted will probably continue over the next couple of months:
“We know that there’s going to be some flooded areas that could potentially be replanted, and we know that there’s some fields that were too wet to get into at the time that….that will have to be factored in. that said, we may be able to pick up various….obviously how high corn prices have been, there’s a lot of speculation in those areas where able to get crops in fairly rapidly this year, whether or not more corn was planted than what we saw in the Intentions Report.”
The June 30th report, based on a survey of growers by the National Agricultural Statistics Service, will include total acres planted through June 16.
Right now, USDA looks for corn yields to come in below trend at 158.7-bushels per acre. While that’s still subject to change, Glauber said what’s becoming increasingly clear is that U.S. ending stocks will remain extremely tight:
“Back at the Outlook Conference or whatever, we were hoping to see a little bit of rebuilding in stocks this year, and now it looks like we’re going to be as tight if not a little more tight than we are in the current year.”
USDA analysts project that corn carryout in 2011-12 will fall to 695-million bushels from 730-million this year. Glauber offered his opinion on how long it’ll be before significant stock rebuilding occurs:
“We’re looking at two or three years of tight supplies as we wait for productivity gains to kind of catch up to demand."
As recently as two years ago, the U.S. had a 1.7-billion bushel surplus of corn.