USDA now forecasts global corn production will hit a record 835-million tons in 2010-11 - up more than three-percent. World Ag Outlook Board Chair Gerald Bange says that’s largely a result of record U.S. production...
“Looking at US production now, at 13.3 7 billion bushels, just a very, very large number. A record high number, as a matter of fact, that is 2% above the 13.1 billion bushels that was produced in 09-10.”
Bange says the U.S. production figure is based on a projected yield of 163.5-bushels per acre...
“That 163.5 billion bushels per acre is about 2.7 bushels per acre above trend, and what that really reflects is the rapid planted progress that we’ve seen in the US this year. We expect to see that will be about 95% planted by the time we get to mid-May.”
Based on total plantings on nearly 89-million acres and prices averaging 3.50 a bushel.
U.S. soybean production meantime is off from an ’09 record - despite record soybean plantings this year...
“We’re starting with a planted area of 78.1 million acres, that’s a record high acreage in the US. To that, we’re assuming a yield of 42.9 bushels per acre on a harvested area of 77.1 which gives us that production that 3.31 billion bushels, which is down about 49 million bushels from the 3.359 or 1.5% that was produced in 2009-10.”
A rebound in South American supplies is forecast to reduce U.S. soybean exports from last year’s record level - while the 2010-11 average price is pegged at 8.75 versus 9.50 last season - on higher ending stocks.
Soybean oil use for biodiesel is up three-percent at 2.9-billion pounds on continued mandates despite a lapsed tax credit. Bange says 2009-10 corn for ethanol use is also up at 4.4-billion bushels - and 4.6-billion in 2010-11. The 2009-10 corn for ethanol use is up 100-million bushels. Bange says that suggests ethanol production of just under 12-billion gallons - rising to 12.4-billion in 2010-11 - both at mandated levels.
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