AFBF Economist Reports Views on Plantings Intension Report
American Farm Bureau Federation economist John Anderson says the USDA Planting Intensions report, placing corn acreage of 95.9 million acres, really blew pre-report expectations out of the roof. That number was much higher than grain industry analysts had expected. And as unexpectedly high as the corn number was, Anderson said the soybean planting estimate was far lower than analysts had expected, coming in at 73.9 million acres.
In 1937, when the previous planting record was set, yield was 28.9 bushels per acre, compared to the 164 bushels per acre expected this year. 2.5 billion bushels of corn were harvested in 1937 compared to around 14.4 billion bushels expected this year.
Anderson says, – this planting expectation number could become a negative factor for corn market prices. That would be good news for livestock and ethanol producers. But for now, the market seems to be more focused on lower soybean acreage as well as pretty strong demand revealed in Friday’s report on grain stocks.
Overall, Anderson said that with a normal growing and harvest season, this year’s corn crop would – be more than enough to meet all of our nation’s domestic needs for feed and fuel, as well as supplies for our export channels.
As for other crops, grain sorghum, barley and oat plantings are forecast to be up by 9 percent, 15 percent and 30 percent, respectively. Wheat plantings are projected to be up 3 percent and cotton plantings are projected to be 13.2 million acres from last year. Anderson said that while the wheat report is an 11 percent drop from last year, it is still on the high side of pre-report expectations.
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